Connecting the Dots

Does human spirituality impact financial markets?

This is admittedly an amazingly back-of-the-envelope analysis -- and 'quants' on Wall Street undoubtedly bake this kind of thing into their models -- but doing it this morning still made me stop and think.

I've mentioned previously in this blog that I'm heads-down on community, social networking and mapping of human consciousness on to the Web. As I was poking around finding sources of quantitative data this morning and thinking about spirituality, I ended up at Alexa Internet looking up an old Vignette customer who'd built their site on our software while I was there, the most-trafficked, non-denominational site Beliefnet.

I looked at BeliefNet's stats over the last few years which made me ask questions like these:

• The low point in early 2002 is obvious with the dotcom and economic crash in full swing. Same understanding due to post-9/11 and terrorism propaganda proliferating as is the relative plateauing for the next couple of years

• What caused the huge dip in late 2004/early 2005?

• Why has their traffic spiked and grown over the last year?

So that led me to thinking about how the financial markets may-or-may-not have mirrored this human spirituality and seeking behavior reflected in so many humans heading to Beliefnet as an internet destination. So I went to CNN/Money and pulled up the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P500 for the same time period...which is what you see above.

Next I took the latter two and superimposed them over Beliefnet's graph (the top bluegreen line is Dow Jones and the slightly underneath one is the S&P graph). Again...not perfect in its scientific and mathematical accuracy, but what the hell...doesn't it at least give you a sense of the trend and the corollary? I sure thought so.

The comparison above is what struck me. Of course, perhaps the spiritual low in late 2004 and early 2005 is what has caused the almost manic exponential 'high' in traffic which occurred in late 2005 and early 2006 at Beliefnet. Or, maybe it should inform us of a few things:

1) People are seeking and they're looking to places like Beliefnet to nourish it. Even a cursory examination of thought leadership in the area of spiritual awakening and rising consciousness will at least make you stop and think about this trend too.

2) The megachurch phenomena, the rush to fundamentalism (not just with radical Islam but conservative Christianity too) are evidence and are similiar to what has occurred in history whenever there was a time of social and cultural upheaval. You can point to the success of Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat as further evidence of the recognition by the masses that the internet is leveling the playing field, making geographic distance increasingly irrelevant, and making the world's minds more accessible.

My opinion is that the internet is accelerating the rise in human consciousness. Why? As more people are connected on Skype, in MySpace and the dozens of other places of social connectedness, the barriers that have kept us tribal, fearful, judgemental, and scrambling for tradition and spiritual anchors in a childlike way are slowly dissolving.

3) Perhaps we should all buy more stock. Maybe this huge surge (it's not just the height of the spike we should examine, but rather it's the density of the blue color which indicates numbers of users, page views, etc.) is an indicator that people are gearing up for the next phase of optimism (I think so) and are preparing themselves unconsciously.

Of course, there are lots of unknowns and rain that could fall on this parade of awakening and optimism. Avian flu pandemic, more terrorism (significantly worse than 9/11), use of tactical nukes on Iran and a war with them, economic devastation (today's newspaper talked about $320 billion in Iraq war costs to date), and other disasters could pop the bubble of spiritual and consciousness awakening and drive more people to embrace the old, the status quo and the childlike parochial views they were taught when the world was still round.

What do you think this means? What's your perspective on the data?

Dots not yet connected: today's random musings

Several interesting "dots" appeared today that I'm going to have to mull over for awhile before I connect them or incorporate them into my thinking about next generation internet:

• Cool article on Mayo Clinic at Fast Company. While at Apple many years ago, I spent considerable time with senior level folks at this multi-billion dollar non-profit organization. It's the biggest, small town clinic in the world. They cater to Arab sheiks (extended the Rochester, MN airport to accommodate their huge jets) and are also a combination of unsophisticated information technologists but simultaneously at the bleeding edge. This article talks about one cutting edge focus and I wouldn't be surprised if it became a best-practice in medicine

• The British Broadcasting Company (BBC) has an experimental prototype of their 75 year back catalog. This is incredible and makes me wonder what the hell our National Public Radio corporation is doing to emulate this experiment

• Sort of a disturbing article about the future of the PalmOS

• This was a "yesterday" news item, but I talked with my 11 year old gaming son last night about it again. The item was Microsoft acquiring Massive, Inc., a company focused on delivering advertising within video games. My son thinks "if the ads are cool I'd watch or look at them" and it's inevitable -- what with companies buying the rights to naming stadiums and seemingly everything sponsored -- advertisers will help underwrite and monetize wherever the attention of the masses go.

Where is the Internet equivalent of the Interstate Highway System?

It's 1955. You want to ship something from Minneapolis to Chicago and need to head down Highway 12 in your panel truck -- a two lane, quite dangerous road -- and 12-14 hours later it arrives...provided there weren't traffic jams, it was Spring and the National Guard was traveling that same road with a convoy or you shipped it by railroad and it took days. That same trip is made fifty years later in 2005 and it takes 7 hours in relative safety and ease -- Spring convoy or not -- and you've shipped that something in one of many dozens of methods (e.g., UPS, FedEx, Yellow Freight, Joe's Trucking).

President Dwight Eisenhower admired Germany's autobahn and recognized its importance as a strategic resource for quickly moving the military around the country -- and its enabling capability to safely and rapidly move mass around Germany without distrupting traffic flow (and the economy). "Ike" went on to be the visionary behind the creation of our interstate highway system.

No one can argue how the interstate has revolutionized moving goods and people around the massive geography that comprises the United States. The railroad essentially was marginalized because trucking was so much more efficient in moving goods around due to this nationwide highway system. Trucks could now bring materials right to their destinations -- and businesses no longer needed to be located as close as possible to railroad tracks in order to be viable.

President Bush has paid seeming lip service to a technology agenda that purports to ensure broadband is available throughout our nation.  "President has called for universal, affordable access for broadband technology by the year 2007 and wants to make sure we give Americans plenty of technology choices when it comes to purchasing broadband. Broadband technology will enhance our Nation's economic competitiveness and will help improve education and health care for all Americans." To me, this smacks of some guy thinking that this internet thingy is cool and access should be there for everyone. What I've seen to date is that the Bush Administration's view of internet infrastructure is akin to having a vision of building Route 66 with zero understanding that this sort of vision guarantees innovation will not be sparked nor the status quo of current business models (like big media, software, commerce, telephony, etc.) be disrupted.

Is broadband speed purposely being allowed to be slow to protect the status quo?  What is our broadband status right now and what is our current Administration (and, I must point out, my own State of Minnesota) doing to "be the cup of gasoline on the smoldering fire of innovation" by providing true broadband?

Connecting the Dots podcast

A quick catch up podcast (yeah...it's been awhile).

On this show it's about the path I've been on and, especially, how many of the things I've been learning about social connectedness, human consciousness, striving for meaning and other basic wisdom is now informing my thoughts and direction with respect to next generation internet.

It's not just the flipper-flappers, dweebezaarb's and other tactical technical protocols and formats that make a Web 2.0 destination. There are so many other intangibles that inform the creation of an online space...and I talk a bit about some of the exploration I've been doing with others in that realm.

Plus, I reveal how Homer Simpson is colluding with the National Security Agency to analyze all my television viewing through the magic of TiVo.  ;-)

Download or listen to this week's podcast

Clouds slowly rolling over mainstream media

Unless you're observing, fully present in the moment, and keenly focused on unfolding events, it's amazing what is missed. If you're not watching for the signs that are signaling the shift from mainstream media to the internet, you'll certainly miss seeing them and there was a whopper of one today.

When I shot the series of photos above, I was standing on the end of a dock at my buddy Eric's cabin in northern Minnesota. I'd come down before dawn as others slumbered, to see if I could be in the moment and take some peaceful, serene pictures and finally see if it was the eye of the photographer vs. the quality of the gear that made the difference in shots (yeah...I learned that good photographers can shoot with a disposable camera and get great shots!). As the clouds slowly appeared and covered up the morning sunrise, it was almost amusing how -- had I not been right there watching it unfold -- I would've been sitting with a newspaper and a bowl of Cheerio's in the cabin oblivious to it.

According to this article in AdAge today (by way of Jeff Jarvis), "It's a moment that has been anticipated for a decade, but that makes it no less seminal. This is the year, according to Merrill Lynch, the Internet collects more ad dollars than magazines."

When I took those shots above, there was no breeze to alert me to how fast they were moving. Within what seemed like mere minutes, it was dark as night and the Sun obliterated in the sky. That's the danger of disruptive technologies and paradigm shifts on incumbent industries, business models and approaches. If you're not paying close attention and being totally present and aware, the storm clouds of disruption will roll in and slowly take away your market.

Lessons of Community for Web 2.0

What can we learn from the drivers that compelled people to create community over the generations? As I've been deeper in to community building over the past few months -- and been thinking about how past bulletin board, forum and now social Web software are attempts to connect people regardless of geography and build true communities of people who share affinities -- I'm discovering lessons that have been learned many times before and mentally applying them to today's internet.

Let's take the Old West as an example since I love the desert and often have wondered what compelled people to scratch out a living in rocks and dirt while simultaneously successfully building communities. When people discovered an area that made them decide to put down roots (even temporary ones), they needed a support infrastructure. When enough people in the surrounding area could support them, churches, stores, brothels, saloons, a blacksmith, a newspaper, a sheriff and many other businesses sprung up to take advantage of the needs and opportunity that now existed.

So what is compelling people to cluster on the internet? Part of the answer is obvious (because we now can), but what is the secret sauce that gets people in a frame of mind to invest energy, effort and resources in online communities?

Did you know there are over 1,717 message boards and countless community sites on the 'net today and many of them have been around for years? What is driving people, for example, to spend time at Beepworld, Jolt or Lay It Low? Wonder how many of them are the ghost towns of tomorrow?

Amazing people and Google Calendar

As I've indicated before in my blog and podcast, I embarked on a new adventure in January pursuing next generation internet. I've been consulting, implementing community support offerings and Web application assets, and delivering white papers and presentations for a major smartphone company. The best part of the path I'm on is aligning with dozens of amazing people and organizations.

I'm connected with several groups of people that are driving toward new ways of bringing groups of people together, building community in new and fundamentally different ways, and tapping in to the increasing numbers of people who are searching for meaning. This wider group of people I'm involved with are searching for a better way to connect with others who share an affinity for <fill in the blank>, and even those who are working toward joint goals (think collaboration from a software standpoint).

The photo above is of a group of men in North Dakota working for the Great Northern Railroad sometime in the early 1900's. My grandpa is in there somewhere but I've not yet located him. He worked for the railroad for 44 years and passed in the 1970's. Why bring that picture into this post and what the hell has it got to do with today, the internet and my current adventure?

Your customer's expectations

Think about companies your customers transact business with online. Buy from them yourself and experience what your customers experience and *then* look at your own. You may be dismayed and surprised with what you find.

Most savvy users expect to make a purchase and almost immediately receive an email as a response. If they've purchased software or another downloadable item, the expectation is that download information and credentials will almost immediately arrive.

So today I purchased vBulletin (the #1 forum software) and made the purchase through *their* preferred payment method, PayPal. Probably shame on me for using echeck vs. a credit card, but now PayPal is saying it could take "up to three days" to clear the payment because vBulletin is a "non-US-verified" provider.

Huh? I thought that PayPal being their preferred meant that they'd set this up in advance!

I need this software tonight but am probably screwed. Guess how I feel about vBulletin and doing business with companies outside the US?

Forced to sign up for Microsoft Passport

I rarely get unusually agitated with most companies products or services. It's fairly easy for me to understand what they're trying to do, see the motivation behind something and therefore find ways around what I find objectionable.

Just hooked up the XBox 360 we bought last night and setup XBox Live. During the 360 setup process, Microsoft forced me to set up a Microsoft Passport account in order to proceed. With an 11 year old eagerly anticipating its hookup, what do you think I did?

I didn't want a Passport account having railed against this single sign-on initiative when it was first introduced -- as did organizations like the Electronic Frontier Foundation that viewed it as a threat to privacy. Shame on me for thinking that this initiative was, in fact, dead and buried. It's not and yet it makes me curious as to why, especially when stuff like this is in their privacy policy:

Passport occasionally hires other companies to provide limited services on our behalf, such as answering customer support inquiries or performing statistical analyses of our services. Passport will only provide these companies with those pieces of your personal information needed to deliver the services, and the companies and their employees are prohibited from using that personal information for any other purpose.

To do what? Perform analytics on game play, games purchased? What's loaded on the XBox when we're using it as a media center? Mapping data from the XBox matching it to my credit card information? In any event, I'm growing weary of trading all my data, clickstream, purchases and other attention information without knowing what it's being used for by a company.

Microsoft claims to be a member of Truste (the non-profit privacy organization) but I can find little on Truste's web site about our pals in Redmond. So you and I have no clue about what they're doing with our data.

Vacuum-cleaner Surveillance

You don't have anything to hide, do you? Then it shouldn't matter if every single thing you do online is screened by government officials?

This is all over the 'net, but I had to post about it this morning since this is so fundamentally important to our privacy. Former AT&T technician Mark Klein has come forward to support the EFF's lawsuit against AT&T for its alleged complicity in the National Security Agency's electronic surveillance. Wired News has published Klein's public statement in its entirety. 

Mass surveillance, data mining and action upon it is just too easy for the Federal government -- and it appears that they're are putting in place all the infrastructure required to make "vacuum-cleaner surveillance" even simpler. Though economics play a huge part in countries like China and India bypassing US telecom networks, no doubt a lack of trust in the United States plays an equal role since we're clearly driving forward with this in all respects.

You need to understand one, fundamental position that exists with the conservatives in this country which explains why a control measure like this is moving forward in a country that used to believe in freedom and privacy. It's all about command-and-control. In this white paper (PDF) -- released in September 2000 by the conservative think-tank Project for the New American Century -- states in part, "CONTROL THE NEW “INTERNATIONAL COMMONS” OF SPACE AND “CYBERSPACE,” and pave the way for the creation of a new military service – U.S. Space Forces – with the mission of space control.

Control of the new international commons. If you're in political power in Europe, Japan, China, or any other region or country on this planet, how would you take a position like that? What would your reaction be to any moves made by our Federal government to direct, suggest or guide cyberspace development?

Control of you is key as well. If you're curious about Al Qaeda and surf web sites, you'll undoubtedly get tracked. If you communicate at all to people in suspect countries, you're tracked. Governments around the world are obviously scared about the power shifting into the hands of the citizenry and bypassing State controlled (or at least influenced) media. Of voice over internet that bypasses state complicit controlled communication services. How else to catch those boogeymen terrorists?

Be watchful, be worried, and make yourself heard. Just be careful if you do it over the internet, your cell or home phone.

1966 vs. 2006

My sisters laughed when my 11 year old son came into the midst of a family gathering last fall and told a joke, abused me verbally, and then recited a TV commercial verbatim. Aghast and yet amused as he ran away, I asked them, "Was I like that?" They instantly both burst out laughing and said, "Yeah! He's *exactly* like you were. He's your "mini-me"! (Referring of course to Dr. Evil's tiny clone in Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me).

I love this kid. He and I have been on six Dad & Son Adventures to Lake Superior in Duluth, Arizona, Rapid City, SD and more. We share so many interests that it's easy to be with him and find common ground. He's more of a technoweenie than I am and is bound for greatness (spoken like a true, humble Dad heh?).

In the photo I'm in the blue shirt at 11 years old. Because of a discussion with my son today about why I'm struggling to get his NintendoDS on our Wifi network (I use WPA encryption and the DS only supports the less secure and previously cracked WEP) made me think about 1966 vs. 2006 and all that's changed.

• Me: Hardy Boys and Tom Swift books. He: Harry Potter; Lord Loss; Interstellar Pig; Dan Millman and dozens and dozens more (man...does this kid read!)
• Me: B&W television and comic books. He: Computers that are Wifi enabled; Xbox/Playstation/Nintendo; occasional cell phone use; DVD and TiVo
• Me: driving trips to northern Minnesota and Yellowstone. He: Dozens of trips including Hawaii, Peru, New York, Arizona, California.

The list goes on. What amazes me is the sheer volume of stimulation his brain has received by 11 vs. what I received at his age. Though he's in the 99th percentile for IQ (must've come from Mom) and he makes sure he's intellectually stimulated all the time, I nonetheless marvel at what a profound worldview this kid has now vs. the limited one I enjoyed at that age.

It's not just him. His friends are the same way and it's almost frightening sometimes to listen to them talk about virtual worlds, game theory (though they don't know it's a theoretical discipline!) and where to find stuff on the 'net. My daughter is simply comfortable with all technology and uses it as a tool. She could care less about gadgets and how stuff works and instead focuses on progressive issues and her friends -- and expects the tools will work and be there when she needs them. Each of my kids are gearing up to make different yet equal impacts on the world and will simply understand when enabling tools debut and how they will benefit their interests.

My opinion about the acceleration in knowledge brought about by our interconnectedness due to the ubiquity of the global internet hasn't changed: it's exponentially accelerating and we're building upon one another's work and knowledge at an increasing rate. Will we make the right decisions about genetic, drug and other therapies? How about computer enhancements that require a biological link? I see that my own children are cognitively prepared right now to face the challenges they'll face the rest of this century...and it helps me sleep soundly.

Where are all the gadgets?

Walk into a Best Buy or Fry's and try to find anything close to the gadgets revealed in Engadget or Gizmodo. Where are they?

Last night I stopped by a Fry's in San Diego to pick up a couple of things. Walking around the store (which, by the way, was the dumpiest and poorly merchandised Fry's I've ever been in), I was struck by how many mass market, mainstream products they had and how few of the new or cool -- even those that have been shipping for awhile.

Here's one example: The Sony PCM-D1, portable field recorder. It's $2,000 retail and appears to be awesome, but I've never held or tried one. Why? Best Buy would *never* carry one and Fry's would if it was hot or had buzz. I've tried Guitar Center in two cities, but they both indicated it was a special order. So I've not yet been able to make a decision on entertaining its purchase.

In a world of reduced retail choice in favor of superstores, by default there is a finite amount of shelf space. I understand these limitations but it makes me wonder about ways to fulfill The Long Tail. As our ability to meet our needs in ever narrower ways continues to accelerate due to the internet -- coupled with our desire to touch, feel, hold and tryout products before we buy -- how will our choice  (or demand) meet supply?

One could argue that ecommerce will fill it. I don't think so. Manufacturer's of good and services will need to significantly ratchet up their willingness to provide demonstration units to distribution or find another way to ensure that their product can be fully understood by those who could buy. Maybe, just maybe, Best Buy will understand soon that The Long Tail is real and that they could put into place demonstration centers that tie in the touchy feely aspect of buying without them having to have in-store inventory (tie into BestBuy.com for next day delivery).

It will be interesting to see how a model emerges to meet the informational needs of buyers while providing us with what we need to experience products up close. Blogs are phenomenal ways to have trusted advisors recommend products and have links to buy them (e.g., Amazon Associates), but we still have the, "I want to touch, feel and play with it" problem to solve.

Traveling....

....so postings will be light.

Goodbye Technology....Hello Knitting

After much thought and consideration, I've decided to completely re-engineer my blog (click on the picture at the left to see the new look-n-feel) and follow my bliss. It simply has become far too difficult to go on living a lie.

Technology just doesn't cut it for me anymore. There is more to life than servers, the internet, software, and all those things. For me, the peace and serenity I find through knitting is what it's all about...and has connected me in a community of love, surrounded by those who share an affinity for the Zen of knitting.

I know, I know, the trails have been blazed before me by the likes of football legend Rosey Grier (Oh yeah...he did needlepoint. I forgot).  But there is NOTHING like knitting a leg warmer, slipping it on nearly complete (important if you want to ensure a good fit and closure) and gazing at it next to your delightfully painted toenails.

So many people are seeking. Looking for meaning. Trying to find their way or the answers to the big questions. I submit that ALL questions can be answered with a good purl stitch while contemplating the meaning of the universe.

I have finally found my place and am complete. Thank you for reading my tech/science/geeky blog and I hope you keep coming back to learn about my new adventure in knitting.